Retail Sales to Now Exceed $4.44 Trillion in 2021, as NRF Revises Annual Forecast


NRF | June 5, 2021


National Retail Federation issued its revised annual forecast for 2021, anticipating retail sales will now grow between 10.5 percent and 13.5 percent to $4.56 trillion this year, up from the original forecast of $4.44 trillion. Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 18 percent and 23 percent to a range of $1.09 trillion to $1.13 trillion as consumers continue to utilize ecommerce.


“The combination of vaccine distribution, fiscal stimulus and private-sector ingenuity have put millions of Americans back to work. While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.


In addition, NRF now projects full-year GDP growth to approach 7 percent, compared with the 4.4 percent and 5 percent forecasted earlier this year. Given the strength of consumer spending, he anticipates the fastest growth the U.S. has experienced since 1984. The reopening of the economy has accelerated much faster than most had believed possible, even a year ago.


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